AI Will (and is) Replace the Office Before It Replaces the p.o.s. Truck

There's a prediction floating around right now that sounds almost insane:

AI may be only a few years away from being able to do most computer-based work as well as — or better than — humans.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has described the future as potentially having something like a "country of geniuses in a data center."

So you and me are both asking "what the F* does that even mean?"

Imagine having thousands or millions of extremely smart employees.

Except they don't sleep.

They don't call out.

They can work at the same time.

And you can create another one almost instantly. Freaky deaky shit.

AI Getting Smarter Doesn't Mean Everything Changes Tomorrow

There are really two different things happening.

1. How capable AI is.

And…

2. How quickly businesses actually use it.

Those are not the same curve.

AI could become capable of doing someone's job before companies are comfortable actually letting it do that job.

There are still questions around reliability, cost, integrations, customers, laws and trust.

That's why nobody actually knows whether the huge economic impact happens in two years, five years or ten.

Even the people building the most advanced AI systems don't know for sure.

But There's a Threshold That Matters

This is the part I think business owners like all you readers should pay attention to.

Imagine an AI employee that completes a task correctly:

70% of the time.

Useful assistant.

85% of the time.

Really useful assistant.

95% of the time.

Now it might start replacing pieces of someone's job.

99.5% of the time.

Now you may just let it handle the entire process.

That last improvement doesn't look huge on paper.

But economically, it could be enormous.

The difference between an AI that helps your receptionist and an AI that is your receptionist is massive.

READ THAT LINE AGAIN 👆

Same technology.

Just reliable enough to cross the line.

What This Could Mean for a Home Service Company

AI isn't carrying a sofa down three flights of stairs anytime soon.

It isn't backing your hook-lift truck into a driveway.

It isn't tearing down a shed.

It isn't loading a 300-pound hot tub.

The physical side of our businesses is much harder to replace.

But look at everything surrounding the physical work:

• Answering calls.
• Following up with leads.
• Scheduling jobs.
• Sending reminders.
• Writing estimates.
• Following up on estimates.
• Requesting reviews.
• Responding to reviews.
• Creating social media posts.
• Managing Google Ads.
• Updating your website.
• Bookkeeping.
• Reporting.
• Customer service.
• Analyzing pricing.
• Tracking employee performance.
• Sending invoices.
• Chasing unpaid invoices.

A huge portion of the office around the truck could eventually be automated for most of you guys. For me almost all of the above is in fact automated by my AI employee I call Hobson.

And we're already seeing the very beginning of it.

The Company of the Future Might Look Weird

Today a $2 million service company might have:

• An owner.
• Operations manager.
• Two CSRs.
• Bookkeeper.
• Marketing person.
• Salesperson.
• Administrative assistant.
• And a field team.

In the future, that same company might have:

• An owner.
• Operations manager.
• Field team.
• And AI.

You see AI doesn't completely replace every person. It turns into one human using five or ten AI systems may eventually accomplish what an entire office used to do.

That's the real economic implication.

You don't necessarily need AI to become some all-powerful superintelligence.

It just needs to make one employee capable of doing the work of three.

Then five.

Then ten.

That alone changes business.

Don't Make the Opposite Mistake Either

There are two dumb ways to react to all of this.

The first is:

"AI is going to replace everyone next year. Everything is over."

Nobody knows that.

The second is:

"This is just another technology trend. I'll worry about it later."

That could be an equally expensive mistake.

The smartest position is somewhere in the middle.

Don't bet your company on somebody's prediction that AGI arrives in 2028.

But don't operate your business like it's still 2019 either.

What I Would Be Doing Right Now

Start looking at every repetitive task inside your company and asking:

Why does a human need to do this?

Not because you need to fire everybody.

Because your employees should be spending their time on things where humans actually create value.

• Solving unusual customer problems.
• Managing crews.
• Building relationships.
• Making judgment calls.
• Selling.
• Leading.
• Improving the business.

If AI can handle the repetitive work underneath them, that's leverage.

And that's available today.

Takeaway

Nobody knows exactly where AI goes from here.

Dario Amodei could be right and we're only a few years away from something enormous.

He could also be early by five or ten years.

It almost doesn't matter.

Because you don't have to predict the future perfectly.

You just have to position yourself so you win either way.

Use AI aggressively where it works today.

Learn how to manage it.

Automate repetitive work.

Keep ownership of your customers, brand and real-world operation.

And continue building the parts of your company that are difficult to copy.

If the AI revolution happens faster than expected, you'll already be ahead.

If it takes another decade?

You'll still have built a faster, leaner and more profitable business.

That's a pretty good bet either way.

That's it for this week. Ttyl ✌️